Tuesday, February 7, 2023

TORONTO

 2023

The bonfire of the speculators: What caused an abrupt down-shifting in the preconstruction assignment market?

John Lorinc
The CN Tower behind a condominium development project, in downtown Toronto, on Oct. 28, 2022.Fred Lum/the Globe and Mail

In the last few years, Frank Giralico, a sales representative for Capital North Realty, was doing a brisk trade in the Greater Toronto Area’s “preconstruction assignment market,” in which investors ante up a down-payment on an as-yet unbuilt condo and then flip the rights to purchase it for a profit before the unit is constructed, never actually intending to own it.

That market hums along when prices are going up, and seizes up when they’re coming down, or when interest rates have spiked. “I focused a lot of my business on that because the market was geared that way,” he admits. Things are different now: “I’ve seen investors who are now faced with the reality that they’re either going to have to come up with extra funds because the mortgage rate has increased so much that they may not be able to close.”

The frothy trade in preconstruction assignments drove the near record growth of the condo sector in 2021, and its collapse has contributed to its abrupt down-shifting in recent months, with Urbanation reporting a 79-per-cent decline in new sales in Q3 2021. As one of the many Youtube real estate investing channels recently noted in an hour-long post-mortem featuring @Precondo founder Jordan Scrinko, Pre-Construction Assignment Sales Are DEAD In Canada.

The reasons aren’t especially difficult to fathom. Intent on breaking the back of the inflation that’s stream-rollered the economy, the Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate hikes have made it much more difficult for buyers to prequalify for loans and, in some cases, come up with adequate funds to close a deal.

But there are other drivers at work, too – a series of federal and municipal policies, several of which came into force on Jan. 1, 2023, that are designed to throw even more cold water on the housing market and its eye-popping prices. These include:

  • New anti-flipping rules, which taxes 100 per cent of the capital gains on a property sold within 365 days of purchase;
  • The City of Toronto’s vacant home tax, which takes effect Feb. 3 and imposes a tax of 1 per cent of market value on unoccupied homes that don’t qualify for exemptions (see sidebar);
  • two-year moratorium on the purchase of residential real estate by foreign buyers;
  • New Canada Revenue Agency rules requiring investors and speculators to pay HST on profits from preconstruction assignments.

These regulations layer onto several earlier measures – e.g., B.C.’s speculation and vacant homes tax and Ontario’s foreign home buyers tax – that also sought to take some of the steam out of the market at a time when governments across the country are looking for ways to stoke the construction of new homes and affordable apartments.

Other jurisdictions have tried similar measures to take the energy out of their own properties markets: New York State passed an anti-flipping law a decade ago. California last year passed a similar law, imposing a 25-per-cent tax on homes resold within three years.

While the question of whether such policies or the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hikes succeeded in cooling the market is largely academic, there’s not much compelling evidence that anti-speculation laws have a significant impact on prices or availability.

Murtaza Haider, who studies real estate management at Toronto Metropolitan University, says the data on B.C.’s vacant home tax shows only a modest effect, and doesn’t expect that Toronto’s new vacant homes policy will free up a lot of empty dwellings. “It doesn’t mean tens of thousands of new units will be available.”

Olaf Weber, a University of Waterloo scholar who has studied such measures, adds that these moves “[show] that the government tries to do something. Many [people] will agree that international investors drive prices up. That’s a pretty simple narrative.” But, he adds, “I don’t think it will really change the market and create more affordable housing.”

Others, however, argue that the recent spate of policies haven’t gone far enough. Planner Andy Yan, director of Simon Fraser University’s City Program, observes that the federal government’s new anti-flipping rule doesn’t apply to one of the most intensely speculative sectors, which is preconstruction assignments by foreign investors. Still, Mr. Yan adds, the growing list of restrictions and taxes is beginning to look like a systemic response to a housing crisis which he describes is 30 years in the making.

Whether or not these measures succeed in tamping down speculation, the real estate industry isn’t pleased with most of the regulations, some of which will bite agents and brokers who buy and flip properties as a sideline, as well as developers looking to presell a sufficient number of units so they can secure construction loans and begin building.

But Christopher Alexander, president of Re/Max Canada, says the vacant homes tax will play an important role in the market in the years to come: “I think that’s a good move,” he says. “We have a serious inventory challenge and a supply shortage that runs deep. We are going to need every piece of product we possibly can bring on to help offset the incredible demand we’re going to continue to have for years to come.”

As for renovators, many in recent years have built thriving businesses around buying, fixing up and then re-selling homes – a practice where the government now says it will treat any resulting capital gains as business income for tax purposes, meaning that tax filers claiming the principal residence capital gains exemption will attract more scrutiny from CRA.

Lawyer Debbie Pearl-Weinberg, executive director of CIBC’s wealth advisory services, describes the 365-day anti-flipping rule as a “bright line test” but adds that renovators who wait for a few days past the deadline to list could still find themselves in CRA’s crosshairs.

“I don’t think taxpayers can expect that if they just make sure that they don’t sell within that 365-day period, that they [can] be rest assured that it is capital gain,” she said.

Thinking ahead to the next economic cycle, Mr. Giralico predicts that while prices will recover, some of the frothier corners of the industry may be altered permanently. “As a gentleman that works on commission, I’d like to make as much money as I can,” he concedes. But, he adds, “I don’t see [preconstruction assignments] being as busy as a few years ago. I don’t think we’ll hit those volumes again simply because there are a lot of things in place now where, you know, not every guy can just come in to buy, whether they can afford it or not.”

Sidebar: Toronto’s Vacant Home Tax

Earlier this year, when the City of Toronto mailed out a notification of the new vacant homes tax, printed on double-side yellow paper, many residents noticed that the accompanying website – toronto.ca/VacantHomeTax – wasn’t yet operational.

The site, which allows owners to fill out a formal declaration of occupancy, has since come on line, and indeed city officials report that as of Jan. 12, 55 per cent of all owners had submitted their declaration. A “robust public awareness campaign” is now in full swing, according to a spokesperson, and it includes a notification that will be sent out with interim property tax notices and individual follow-up reminders sent out after the Feb. 3 deadline.

The move to implement a vacant home tax dates back to 2019, and was estimated in 2021 to cost about $11-million in start-up expenses, with an outlay of about $3.1-million annually to keep it running. City officials at the time predicted gross revenues of $55-million to $66-million, based on a ballpark estimate that about one percent of Toronto’s housing stock is vacant. Staff admitted, however, that the actual number of vacant dwellings was unknown.

Also unknown: the full range of circumstances that will fall between the cracks of the bylaw, which outlines exemptions, such as vacancy due to renovations or the hospitalization of the owner. In fact, Toronto lawyers have been fielding calls from anxious clients about situations not covered by the enumerated exemptions, such as tenants that don’t have written leases, or owners who’ve been living abroad for extended periods due to the pandemic.

Even with the recent drop in real estate prices, the cost of the tax will be significant: a one-time hit of $15,000 on a $1.5-million home.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/article-the-bonfire-of-the-speculators-what-caused-an-abrupt-down-shifting-in/

NEW YORK

Shuttered Midtown hotel sells at massive loss

The landmarked former Marriott at 525 Lexington went for ~ $153 million after trading for $270 million in 2015  -- 2023 Jan

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/beverly-hills-based-hawkins-way-capital-buys-655-room-hotel-in-midtown-manhattan-301734069.html

Manhattan office landlords will owe lenders $12.7B in the coming months 

These 10 addresses hold the largest commercial mortgage-backed securities loans in the New York City office market that are set to mature in 2023 or 2024. Together, they comprise nearly $7 billion in debt, or 56% of all the CMBS debt owed by city office buildings, that must be repaid in less than two years.

280 Park Ave.: $1.1 billion

This 1.3 million-square-foot office property in Midtown East is owned jointly by SL Green and Vornado Realty Trust. The $1.1 billion loan on the property is due in full by Sept. 15, according to Trepp. The partners closed on the loan in 2017 to refinance a $900 million loan from Deutsche Bank that was scheduled to mature this May.

1290 Sixth Ave.: $950 million

Also owned by Vornado, this building measures 2.1 million square feet and sits by Rockefeller Center. In November 2021 Vornado closed the $950 million loan, which matures in November to replace another loan of the same size that was scheduled to mature in November 2022. Paris-based liquor company Remy Cointreau recently announced it would be relocating its 52,000 -square-foot headquarters at the building to 30,000 square feet at Rudin’s 3 Times Square later this year.

1 New York Plaza: $835 million

This 2.6 million-square-foot Financial District building is owned by Brookfield Properties, China Investment Corp. and AEW Capital Management. The owners put the property on the market in early 2022 but pulled their listing months later. The owners refinanced the property late in 2020 with an $835 million loan originated by Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and BMO Harris Bank that will mature in January. That replaced a $750 million loan obtained from Wells Fargo in 2016.

277 Park Ave.: $750 million

The Stahl Organization recently completed a $120 million revamp of its Midtown East office tower and has attracted a bevy of new tenants including M&T Bank. Its $750 million mortgage will mature in August 2024. Trepp placed this building on its watch list last month—JP Morgan is the main tenant with over 40% of the space (down from 70% in 2021) and is opening a new office nearby that could reduce the need for this one later on.

230 Park Ave.: $670 million

This property, also known as the Helmsley Building, is owned by RXR Realty which recently announced it would be giving some of its older, obsolete office properties back to the bank instead of continuing to make debt payments. The firm’s chief executive, Scott Rechler, didn’t specify which properties or how many, but this building was constructed in 1929. Its $670 million mortgage matures in December.

375 Park Ave.: $573.8 million

This iconic Manhattan office tower, also known as the Seagram Building, is owned by Aby Rosen’s RFR Realty. This year it also made it to Trepp’s watch list because of high tenant turnover and an occupancy rate that fell from 98% in 2018 to 75% most recently, Trepp reported. In December law firm Fried Frank announced it would be relocating from its offices there to 14,000 square feet at 535 Madison Ave.    Its nearly $600 million mortgage will mature in May.    

150 E. 42nd St.: $525 million

This office building is owned by the 601W Cos. A major tenant there, Dentsu, is reportedly trying to get out of its 112,328-square-foot lease. The $525 million mortgage on the building is due in September 2024. 

620 Eighth Ave.: $515 million

Also known as the New York Times Building, this 744,000-square-foot Brookfield Properties office tower in July closed on its $515 million mortgage, which matures in December. It has seen strong leasing traction in recent months. Software maker Datadog and jobs site Indeed together took 330,000 square feet at the building in July.

330 Madison Ave.: $500 million

Vornado Realty Trust owned this building until 2019; it’s now owned by German real estate group Munich Re Group. The owner’s asset management arm, MEAG, recently consolidated its three New York offices into 75,000 square feet at the building. The $500 million mortgage on the property matures in August 2024. 

300 Park Ave.: $485 million

This Tishman Speyer building serves as the headquarters of Colgate-Palmolive, which occupies 242,000 square feet there. However, occupancy at the building fell from 99% in 2018 to 75% in 2020 before rising to 81%, Trepp reported. The $485 million mortgage on the property matures in August.


Hotels 2022 Year End

https://img04.en25.com/Web/JLLHotels/%7B228987cb-89e3-4053-a506-d0ce226a4f33%7D_US_Hotel_Investment_Trends_-_Year_End_2022.pdf


New York property tycoon to give worn-out offices ‘back to the bank’

A new era of remote work and rising interest rates has changed the equation for some developers


Scott Rechler ploughed billions of dollars into Manhattan office properties after the 2008 financial crisis, amassing one of the city’s biggest portfolios through a flurry of deals. Now Rechler, the chief executive of property developer RXR, is preparing to surrender some of his offices to lenders.

The decision comes after an exhaustive review of RXR’s properties and is an acknowledgment that some that generated steady, if unspectacular, returns no longer make economic sense in a new era of remote work and rising interest rates.

“With some of those, I don’t think there’s anything we can do with them,” Rechler said. The only alternative, he explained, was to “give the keys back to the bank” — developer-speak for halting debt payments and relinquishing control of the asset while trying to work out a solution with the lender. “Give the keys back to the bank. And you’ve got to be disciplined about it.”

Nearly three years after the Covid pandemic shut down New York City and fundamentally changed the way people work, RXR’s plans reflect a growing consensus that the world’s largest office market is heading for a calamitous period. Dated buildings in humdrum locations will spiral into obsolescence unless they can be repurposed for other uses. Meanwhile, developers are betting that the best and most advanced towers — laden with technology and amenities and situated by mass transit — will prosper.

The best example of the latter may be SL Green’s One Vanderbilt, which soars over Grand Central Station and has fetched record rents, even in the midst of the pandemic. Rechler is hoping that RXR’s forthcoming 175 Park, which will be the western hemisphere’s tallest building when it is completed, will eventually surpass it.

A rendering of 175 Park
A rendering of 175 Park, which is expected to be the western hemisphere’s tallest building when it is completed © Render by The Boundary

“We’ve had more showings for that building in the last, call it, 60 days, then we’ve had for the rest of our portfolio,” he said. Rechler also has high hopes for 5 Times Square, the former home of EY. RXR and its partners are spending about $300mn to revamp the building, adding everything from a new entrance hall and elevators to a spa.

Those bets may yet pay off. But Rechler, who is also a board member of the New York Federal Reserve, is expecting a rough stretch in the months ahead. The sharp rise in interest rates from historic lows is threatening all sorts of businesses that were predicated on cheap and readily available capital, he noted. Even tech companies, one of the few remaining sources of office market expansion, are now jettisoning thousands of employees. Their cuts, in turn, appear to be rippling through Wall Street.

“When companies are laying off people, they don’t usually take more space,” Rechler said, adding: “The amount of development projects that we’re hearing about around the country that are stopping is mind-blowing.”

Rechler, 55, is the bullet-headed scion of a Long Island property fortune built by his grandfather, William, who developed a lightweight folding lawn chair after the second world war. William and his brothers poured the resulting profits into warehouses, industrial parks and suburban offices across Long Island.

It was a precocious Scott Rechler, still in his 20s, who convinced family members to take the business public in 1995, and then led a risky push into the Manhattan office market.

He has demonstrated a knack for timing. In January 2007, with the financial crisis looming, he sold the company, Reckson Associates Realty Corporation, to SL Green for $6.5bn.

Scott Rechler, chief executive of RXR
Scott Rechler: ‘This is going to be a tough time. [But] you can’t paint office buildings all with the same brush’

Sixteen years later, he still shakes his head that some of his investors had to be convinced to support the deal. Rechler launched RXR and then waited until August 2009 to jump back into the market, spending $4.5bn over the next two years on office properties that were deeply discounted.

The first building he acquired had a 10-year lease to JPMorgan. While that now seems like a sure bet, it did not at the time, Rechler recalled: “We spent six weeks underwriting and thinking: what happens if JPMorgan goes out of business?”

New York’s office market recovered and, flush with foreign money, soon exceeded its previous highs. By 2016 the office market was peaking and RXR pivoted again. It switched its focus to apartments — so-called multifamily developments — in growing cities such as Denver and Phoenix, and industrial warehouses.

Both have been darlings of real estate investors in recent years. Even when their finances are strained, people will still pay rent, the thinking goes. Rents can also be raised in periods of inflation. Warehouses, meanwhile, have become vital nodes of ecommerce.

But with the pandemic, offices in New York and other cities are posing a desperate challenge for RXR and other developers. Rechler has accepted that “the genie is out of the bottle” and that hybrid work is not going away. “We’re a real estate company and we still let people work hybrid on Friday,” he said. “So, it’s here to stay.”

In December, he asked his team to draw up a set of metrics that took account of the new reality and then ranked RXR’s office holdings accordingly. “I call it Project Kodak,” Rechler said, referring to the once-dominant film company that was upended by new technology. “Some buildings are film, and some buildings are digital. The ones that are film, you’ve got to be realistic about it.”

RXR will not invest in those properties unless it can find a way to convert them to another use — or if it believes they can still prosper as low-rent alternatives. “But even there . . . I’d be concerned. Because they’re becoming competitively obsolete quickly. So milk what you can get out of it, figure out what to do and move on,” Rechler said. “The ones that are digital, that’s what you’ve got to focus on.”

He declined to say which, or how many, of his buildings were destined to go back to lenders — although he estimated about 10 per cent of RXR’s office portfolio fell into the “film” category.

Some of those may be candidates for converting to residential — an idea that has enthused both developers and New York mayor Eric Adams, whose city is chronically short of housing.

But, as Rechler observed, such projects are rife with complications. Even if a developer can solve architectural and zoning challenges, they first must empty the building of tenants. “It’s a long process. I’ve got to move tenants out, I’ve got to carry a vacant building — why go through that process? It’s not simple,” he explained, arguing that New York state would have to offer tax and regulatory incentives to make such projects feasible.

Still, Rechler does see opportunities in the office upheaval. Like other developers, RXR has created a property lending arm to step into the void left by banks after the 2008 crisis.

He expects to make about $2bn in high-yield loans this year for office and multifamily projects that have run short of cash as other lenders pulled back.

There should be opportunities. Many institutional investors are now desperate to reduce their office exposure. In some cases, Rechler argued, the projects were still viable but their debt ratios had suddenly ballooned because the underlying property valuations have been marked down.

“What you’re seeing is, a lot of institutions just don’t want to invest any more money into these buildings. So the sponsors are just sort of left in nowhere land,” he explained, adding: “This is going to be a tough time. [But] you can’t paint office buildings all with the same brush.”